The synergy of fraud
To figure out how fraud may affect gun collecting, lets first consider several trends that may be interacting to create a combined impact.

Increasing gun values - providing greater monetary incentive to fakery.

Increasing information on details of collectible arms. This is a double edged sword. On the one hand, increased availability of detailed information provides the collector with knowledge to detect incorrectly altered pieces. On the other hand, it provides the forger with the information to make it look right.

Decreased availability of top-drawer collectibles; increased demand. Noted authority R. L. Wilson, in his latest book makes a strong argument that the finest firearms are disappearing from the collector market into museums and permanent collections. Meanwhile, new collectors continue to enter the field, and the hot new sport of Cowboy Action Shooting increases public interest in and demand for old guns. As they say about real estate "They ain’t makin any more." Hmm. Well, maybe with collectible guns, they are.

Increased authenticity of reproductions. Like it or not, altered and artificially aged reproductions continue to be the basis of fakes -- both crude and surprisingly sophisticated. The more the reproduction market demands authenticity, the less the faker has to do to create a plausible fake.

Increased sophistication of both legitimate restoration and faking technology. To me, the most intriguing response has been to the question "Are there restorations and fakes out there that are undetectable?" There was a strong split in opinion among some of the top authorities in the country. One camp held that a faked item can always be identified if a knowledgeable enough expert has the time to examine it. The other reports that techniques of fabrication, recreating and then authentically aging correct finish, and duplicating markings have been perfected to the extent that "perfect fakes" can be and are being made.

It’s a puzzler. It would seem that if undetectable fakes ARE being made, no one would know about it because they would be fooling the experts. On the other hand, just because one expert may not be able to identify a fake, doesn’t mean that another might not catch it. One interesting comment, heard more than once, was "the faker always slips up". Again, the counterpoint -- "Yes, but like the rest of us, they learn from their mistakes, and improve their future efforts."

Impact on collecting
Here’s my guess as to how this all adds up for the future of gun collecting. Of course, you gotta realize this prognostication is from a guy who was sure Colt & Winchester values had topped out a decade ago, and just knew that Bush would have a second term.

"Mint" gun no longer the holy grail. This is probably my most controversial prediction, but I believe that the "Condition is Everything" concept holds less sway than it did a few years ago. I also think that as more perfectly restored guns are created using essentially undetectable restoration techniques, collectors who will pay highest premiums for 100% mint factory new guns will continue to decline. There are certainly collectors today who are less inclined to pursue a 100% gun, believing that it is more likely to have been dinked with than a gun that shows honest wear.

Provable pedigree more important. Among the rarefied, highest dollar market, it would seem that the provenance of a high dollar gun will become more essential for a gun to realize top value. If sophisticated engraving, restoration, and aging techniques can fool the top experts in a field, it only makes sense that a gun that has been known and can be proven to have been in a particular state in a known collection for a number of years will bring a substantial premium over one that has just "come in out of the brush".

Discourage new collectors? Nope. Refocus market? Yep. - Common wisdom holds that the collector who gets burned early, or is frightened by tales of fakes, will soon be an ex-collector. There is also consensus that the hobby needs new blood, and cannot afford to lose a generation of collectors. I suspect we may be underestimating the allure of guns, and the innate smarts of new collectors. Yes, perhaps some will be scared off in certain fields. However, I think the market has it’s own intelligence, and will shift to fields where fakery is less common and has less impact on values. Perhaps we can foresee a somewhat broader based collector market, with the heavily faked areas left to linger while areas that have been less glamorous, less pricey with less incentive to fraud continue to grow.

You know what? That might mean that "gun collecting" becomes less the province of an elite few chasing on the finest known examples for prestige, ego and "investment" purposes, and returns to the realm of being a fun, fascinating, and interesting hobby shared by many who love guns and history. And, in my book, that ain’t a bad thang.