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Pieces of History
- By Supica, Jim
- Published 18 March 2008
- Arms and Armour
- Unrated
Supica, Jim
Jim Supica is president of Old Town Station, Ltd. Collectible Firearms.
He is (contributing) editor of numerous publications and is co-author of ‘Standard Catalog of Smith & Wesson’.
Old Town Station, Ltd.
P.O. Box 14040
Lenexa, KS 66285
U.S.A.
t. +1-913-492-3000 [9-4 Central, weekdays]
www.ArmchairGunShow.com
A system for evaluating historically attributed firearms.
A gun with a known historical association is a tangible connection to our collective past, and such connections are rare and precious things.
Precious implies value, value implies price, and the question always arises for a collector – exactly how much is history worth? In 1993 we saw the S&W New Model Number Three, which was reportedly used by Bob Ford to kill Jesse James knocked down for $163,000 on a British auction block. Late in 1994, Theodore Roosevelt’s famous Holland and Holland double rifle brought a cool half million at Butterfield & Butterfield (and that was before the 10% buyers premium)! Obviously the buyers of these pieces were paying for something more than condition.
What exactly were they buying? How does one assess the “history” of a gun? An old gun accompanied by a pile of newspaper clippings, documents, and photographs can make a very impressive package. However, more than one collector has paid a handsome premium for such a package, only to discover, sometimes years later, that there is nothing that really ties that particular gun to the individual or event so heavily documented in the paperwork.
Collectors have more or less agreed on a couple quantifiable systems for evaluating the “condition” of a gun. I’d like to suggest that a similar system for evaluating the historical claims of a gun might be a useful mental tool for the collector or enthusiast.
Prices of History
Here’s how I approach it:
The value of a historically attributed gun is the sum of two figures :
The HISTORIC ATTRIBUTION VALUE is the amount added to the gun’s value for the story attached to the gun – it’s historical ownership or usage. This is usually a far more subjective figure, and is more similar to valuing collectible historical documents.
This Historic Attribution Value is itself the product of two factors :
HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE Of these two factors, HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE is the most subjective, and will vary from collector to collector, depending on that individual’s interest in the history involved.
A gun’s historical claim usually will involve either ownership by a particular individual or usage in a famous or infamous incident. Those with the highest value will have both.
What you are pricing is the fame or notoriety of the individual and/or event in question. Presidents, generals, famous lawmen and outlaws seem to rank highest. Ownership by the most famous of these can easily result in a six figure gun, especially if combined with a particular notorious event.
Ownership by lesser political or military figures, obscure lawmen, or less notorious criminals will still significantly enhance a gun’s value.
Even attribution to an essentially unknown individual can add value, usually proportionate to the distance in time and the amount of information that can be dug up on the person in question.
Popular perception can certainly heavily impact the value assigned to “Historical Significance”, sometimes in ways that would make an academic historian blanch. Perhaps a way to conceptualize the value of the historical significance is to look at the cumulative media & literature devoted to the individual or event. In ascending value:
A gun traced back to someone who lived, got married, had a job and died may have a little historical value added, whereas a gun proved to have been used by a legendary character in a notorious Old West shootout may set record prices.
Credibility
The CREDIBILITY of a gun’s historic claim lends itself to a more objective analysis – an analysis that a prospective buyer ignores at his own financial peril.
I tend to assign a historically attributed gun’s credibility a grammar school grade – A,B,C,D, or F. Each grade represents a level of authenticity.
A= Certain.
B= Probable.
C= Plausible.
D= Questionable
F= Impossible.
As with school grades, each level can have a plus or minus rating.
Once a dollar value has been established for the gun’s HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE, a factor can be applied based on the gun’s CREDIBILITY rating. The following scale might serve as a guideline:
A – 100% historical attribution value.
B – 75% to 50% historical attribution value.
C – 50% to 25% historical attribution value.
D –25% to 5% historical attribution value, with the caveat that a “D” gun should never go for more than double the gun’s intrinsic value. In most cases, a “D” type story gun will bring only a small premium or perhaps make the gun easier to sell at its intrinsic value.
F – 0% historical attribution value. In fact, the intrinsic value of the gun may be lessened if a disproved historical name has been permanently marked on the gun.
Evaluating Credibility
Let’s take a closer look at evaluating the CREDIBILITY of a gun’s historical claim:
A. To get an A rating, a gun must inspire a high degree of Certainty that it is what it purports to be. It must be accompanied by documentation which satisfies the following criteria:
i. TIMELINESS – The documentation must be from the period of claimed historical association. Not from three generations later. Not from 10 years after the fact.
ii. CERTAIN IDENTIFICATION – It must specifically identify the individual gun or group of guns in question. Most often this is done by serial number. Occasionally it may be possible to do by photograph or description of specific unique physical characteristics, but extreme caution should be used in relying on such an approach. In some cases “Provenance”, discussed in B, may provide reasonably certain identification, but also should be approached with open-minded skepticism.
iii. CREDIBILITY OF SOURCE – The identification must come from a credible source, one unlikely to intentionally or accidentally misidentify the gun. Factory records or court records are preferable. Newspaper accounts, and signed documents (preferably notarized) from credible individuals may meet this requirement.
A rated guns are very, very rare. Sort of like true “mint” guns.
B. B rated guns have a high degree of Probability that they are as represented. They typically are guns with strong historical documentation, but which fall a little short of the stringent criteria required for an A rating.
The most common difference between A and B guns lies in the area of Timeliness of the documentation. Often a B gun will have certain identification from a credible source, but the identification will come at some time later than the period of historical use. Often it is the case that the documentation will come from a descendant of the original user, and the gun will have been passed down within the family.
Precious implies value, value implies price, and the question always arises for a collector – exactly how much is history worth? In 1993 we saw the S&W New Model Number Three, which was reportedly used by Bob Ford to kill Jesse James knocked down for $163,000 on a British auction block. Late in 1994, Theodore Roosevelt’s famous Holland and Holland double rifle brought a cool half million at Butterfield & Butterfield (and that was before the 10% buyers premium)! Obviously the buyers of these pieces were paying for something more than condition.
What exactly were they buying? How does one assess the “history” of a gun? An old gun accompanied by a pile of newspaper clippings, documents, and photographs can make a very impressive package. However, more than one collector has paid a handsome premium for such a package, only to discover, sometimes years later, that there is nothing that really ties that particular gun to the individual or event so heavily documented in the paperwork.
Collectors have more or less agreed on a couple quantifiable systems for evaluating the “condition” of a gun. I’d like to suggest that a similar system for evaluating the historical claims of a gun might be a useful mental tool for the collector or enthusiast.
Prices of History
Here’s how I approach it:
The value of a historically attributed gun is the sum of two figures :
- The gun’s INTRINSIC VALUE
- plus the gun’s HISTORIC ATTRIBUTION VALUE.
The HISTORIC ATTRIBUTION VALUE is the amount added to the gun’s value for the story attached to the gun – it’s historical ownership or usage. This is usually a far more subjective figure, and is more similar to valuing collectible historical documents.
This Historic Attribution Value is itself the product of two factors :
- The HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE of the individual or event, and
- The CREDIBILITY of the evidence supporting the gun’s claim.
HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE Of these two factors, HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE is the most subjective, and will vary from collector to collector, depending on that individual’s interest in the history involved.
A gun’s historical claim usually will involve either ownership by a particular individual or usage in a famous or infamous incident. Those with the highest value will have both.
What you are pricing is the fame or notoriety of the individual and/or event in question. Presidents, generals, famous lawmen and outlaws seem to rank highest. Ownership by the most famous of these can easily result in a six figure gun, especially if combined with a particular notorious event.
Ownership by lesser political or military figures, obscure lawmen, or less notorious criminals will still significantly enhance a gun’s value.
Even attribution to an essentially unknown individual can add value, usually proportionate to the distance in time and the amount of information that can be dug up on the person in question.
Popular perception can certainly heavily impact the value assigned to “Historical Significance”, sometimes in ways that would make an academic historian blanch. Perhaps a way to conceptualize the value of the historical significance is to look at the cumulative media & literature devoted to the individual or event. In ascending value:
- Small town newspaper clippings, family records, etc.
- Reference to individual or event can be found in library.
- There has been a book published on the individual.
- Commonly recognized name.
- Portrayed on Mount Rushmore or by Kevin Costner in recent movie.
A gun traced back to someone who lived, got married, had a job and died may have a little historical value added, whereas a gun proved to have been used by a legendary character in a notorious Old West shootout may set record prices.
Credibility
The CREDIBILITY of a gun’s historic claim lends itself to a more objective analysis – an analysis that a prospective buyer ignores at his own financial peril.
I tend to assign a historically attributed gun’s credibility a grammar school grade – A,B,C,D, or F. Each grade represents a level of authenticity.
A= Certain.
B= Probable.
C= Plausible.
D= Questionable
F= Impossible.
As with school grades, each level can have a plus or minus rating.
Once a dollar value has been established for the gun’s HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE, a factor can be applied based on the gun’s CREDIBILITY rating. The following scale might serve as a guideline:
A – 100% historical attribution value.
B – 75% to 50% historical attribution value.
C – 50% to 25% historical attribution value.
D –25% to 5% historical attribution value, with the caveat that a “D” gun should never go for more than double the gun’s intrinsic value. In most cases, a “D” type story gun will bring only a small premium or perhaps make the gun easier to sell at its intrinsic value.
F – 0% historical attribution value. In fact, the intrinsic value of the gun may be lessened if a disproved historical name has been permanently marked on the gun.
Evaluating Credibility
Let’s take a closer look at evaluating the CREDIBILITY of a gun’s historical claim:
A. To get an A rating, a gun must inspire a high degree of Certainty that it is what it purports to be. It must be accompanied by documentation which satisfies the following criteria:
i. TIMELINESS – The documentation must be from the period of claimed historical association. Not from three generations later. Not from 10 years after the fact.
ii. CERTAIN IDENTIFICATION – It must specifically identify the individual gun or group of guns in question. Most often this is done by serial number. Occasionally it may be possible to do by photograph or description of specific unique physical characteristics, but extreme caution should be used in relying on such an approach. In some cases “Provenance”, discussed in B, may provide reasonably certain identification, but also should be approached with open-minded skepticism.
iii. CREDIBILITY OF SOURCE – The identification must come from a credible source, one unlikely to intentionally or accidentally misidentify the gun. Factory records or court records are preferable. Newspaper accounts, and signed documents (preferably notarized) from credible individuals may meet this requirement.
A rated guns are very, very rare. Sort of like true “mint” guns.
B. B rated guns have a high degree of Probability that they are as represented. They typically are guns with strong historical documentation, but which fall a little short of the stringent criteria required for an A rating.
The most common difference between A and B guns lies in the area of Timeliness of the documentation. Often a B gun will have certain identification from a credible source, but the identification will come at some time later than the period of historical use. Often it is the case that the documentation will come from a descendant of the original user, and the gun will have been passed down within the family.